Sunday, 30 January 2022

Is Banknifty Bearish In budget week

How to trade banknifty in a budget week?

Banknifty is trading above 13 MA (35321) in the monthly time frame, closed above monthly Pivot (35534) and above AVWAP (37348) from 1st October high. The major trend is bullish.

Banknifty spot is trading well above 50 moving average in the weekly timeframe. 35650 provides strong support. Long term trend is bullish.

In daily time frame, banknifty is trading above 21 ema and closed above 1 st Pivot resistance 37330.

BNF spot is bullish in monthly, weekly, and daily time frames as per my technical analysis.

In the daily time frame price is trading well below 50-day vma over RSI (9). This shows weakness in the market. This is based on NK Sinha's Hilega Milega strategy which I follow.

Future and option data

FII are net sellers in index future, cash, and options data. This happened during COVID fall. You may watch an interesting video by Shailesh saraf FII data hints Nifty crash in February 2022.


Astrological view

Monday overall market might be bullish considering the forthcoming budget

4th Feb to 8th Feb market will be very sensitive and we may witness some big fall

Neural analysis for the Indian market 











As per neural analysis, the market might make a low in February.

You may refer to the link for the bank Nifty range from 2006-2021 by Brahmesh Bhandari.

Weekly trading Levels


Daily options trading strategy 

1. I will buy the option once the price breaks its 15 min opening range. I will maintain strict stop loss above the previous 5-minute candle. Buying option needs to be in tune with VIX VIX will also work as support and resistance tomorrow. 

2. Will sell the option in the direction of the trend based on the super trend (10,3). However, there might not be any theta decay due to high volatility. 



HDFCBANK in budget week -bullish or bearish

How I will trade HDFCBANK in the coming week?

Last week I was personally bullish on HDFCBANK so I took hedged long future trade.

My exiting option trade strategy




PnL  of the long future hedged strategy



Profit booked         33605

Unrealized profit   (43587)

Margin 2 lakh 

Breakeven 1573

Target profit 5% of deployed capital


Plan for this week 










HDFC bank broke a 50-week simple average in the previous week. Any two closures below the previous week's low will confirm the bear trend. 

Supports in daily chart  1410, 1365 and 1300

Future and option data analysis for HDFCBANK

  • ATM IV 27.5
  • The realized volatility  for the last 20 days 20

Open interest

  • 1500 CE  2.6 M
  • 1400 PE  966K
Fundamental analysis of HDFC bank

1. Positive sales growth
2. Increasing free cash flow 
3. Price to sales ratio 6
4. PE ratio 22.5 
5. PEG ratio 1.2
3. Strong process-oriented company

FII data 

FII is net bearish in index future, cash market, and index option 

Astrological sensitive days 

4th to 10th February will be sensitive due to various aspects, Jupiter & moon will cross their dead points in the sign

Plan 

  1. If HDFCBANK breaks two weeks low at 1410 and trades below one-hour post-budget session, will close long future.
  2. Sell another Call during the early budget session to reduce the overall delta of the position and take benefit of volatility expansion
  3. Will keep HDFCBANK delta positive as Banknifty position is overall delta negative.
  4. Post budget I will make the position delta negative and will buy HDFCBANK in cash for the long term. 1353 is 52 weeks low for HDFCBANK.
I expect private banks will perform in increasing interest rate regimes.


Sunday, 23 January 2022

Will HDFC shares rise tomorrow?

 Is it a good time to buy HDFC share? 

HDFCBANK is one of the leading private in India. In the coming days with an increasing interest rate, this bank has a good chance to give a good return. 

Here is a technical and basic fundamental analysis of HDFCbank with Target and Stoploss for positional trading using future and options.

 Technical analysis 

HDFCBANK is underperforming Nifty 50 for some time.  It is very close to 13 EMA and historically it is at a good level to bounce back.



Friday, 21 January 2022

Is banknifty bearish

Banknifty daily chart analysis

Banknifty is bearish in the daily time frame. Today BNF took support from 55 ema and closed above 21 Ema. If BNF breaks today's high and closes above 21ema. Banknifty formed higher high on 12th January considering 13th December high and 20th December low. Banknifty is in a perfect place to bounce back as per wave structure.

Banknifty support and resistance

If banknifty breaks 37000, a quick fall might happen towards 35300.

Banknifty will be positional long once it starts trading above 38800

Future and Options data analysis

FII and Pro net sellers in the market. There might be a small relief rally, but the overall trend is still negative.

Astrological analysis

Next week the market will be very volatile. A sharp fall might happen near expiry.
Two important Astro events will occur on 23th Jan . Saturn & Mars will be at 45-degree aspect. Sun and Mercury will be inconjunct. 

These events usually lead to trend changes in the market. Monday high and low will be necessary for the rest of the week. 

Jupiter is at Rahu star, so high volatility is expected to continue till the end of February.
 

A possible effect of International market news

Market participants are worried about US FED's liquidity crunch and balance sheet normalization. Historically, the Indian market has been affected by the increase in interest. However, the banking and financial market typically perform well in this market type.

Covid and Geopolitical conflicts can trigger a sudden collapse in the market.

Trading levels for tomorrow 

  • Buy Above 37485 Tgt 37610, 37729, and 37900 (Bank Nifty Spot Levels)
  • Sell Below 37220 Tgt 37083, 36920, and 36816 (Bank Nifty Spot Levels)
Please click the link Brahmesh technical analysis to know more about various Astrotechnical reasons which might influence the movement of BNF.

Weekly levels

Above 38000, BNFwill be bullish with an immediate target of 38600, 39000.
37050 will work as weekly support for any down move.

A unique option trading strategy 

The strategy will consist of three strategies :
1. Hedged future trade 
2. Weekly trade using BATMAN strategy 
3. ATM straddle 


Wednesday, 19 January 2022

Expert view on Banknifty -20-01-2022

Is banknifty bullish and bearish?

Extreme volatility is being observed in banknifty. Last few days, BNF traded with negative bias.

Banknifty future chart analysis?

Banknifty support and resistance levels

Here we will discuss the required levels in 15 minutes time frame.

38322 is resistance. Today it bounced from the support zone. Critical support for tomorrow is 37600.

What do planetary positions indicate?

Tomorrow is Ketu star day. Profit booking might happen. There might be sharp reversal during the last hour.

Future and option data analysis

FII and pro net sellers in the market. Their position size -453798 contracts.


Tuesday, 18 January 2022

Tomorrow banknifty prediction|19-1-2022

Banknifty chart analysis

Banknifty had a strong up move in the earlier part of the day. But it shows a definite bearish trend at the end of the day.

Banknifty daily chart analysis

banknifty future shows strong bearishness for the last 3 trading days. Today it closed below 5 EMA high again. 38120 to 37800 will act as solid support for BNF.

Any positional long can be initiated above today's high.

Banknifty open interest analysis

FII & Pro is net short by -339987 contracts. The market witnessed writing at 38500 and ITM call writing at 38000.

ATM IV is 47 and 20 days realized volatility is 15. This shows options are priced high due to fear factors.

Astrological forecast for tomorrow

Important planetary positions:

  • Mercury retrograde
  • Sun ingress
  • Uranus became direct from retrograde

Mercury retrograde indicates a significant change in the market. Tomorrow mercury star day and mercury will be sub lord while the market opens, so break out of opening range breakout will decide the trend for the day.

A big movement is expected and even within a single trading day, we can see wild movements of 1000 points.

International market impact

Fed officials say rate hikes near as inflation soars, creating a panic in the market.

Tomorrow bank nifty bullish or bearish

The market trend will decide by 9:45 AM. I expect a sideways to bearish move in the market.

Expert view on banknifty levels (source: Brahmesh technical analysis

  • Buy Above 38300 Tgt 38387, 38475 and 38678 (Bank Nifty Spot Levels)
  • Sell Below 38067 Tgt 37920, 37777 and 37610 (Bank Nifty Spot Levels)

Saturday, 15 January 2022

Banknifty trading plan | 17th Jan to 21st Jan

BNF technical chart

Banknifty closed just below the high of 5 EMA in the daily chart. BNF closed below 5 EMA High. 

Future and option data analysis

FII is slowly increasing their short positions. FII resumed selling in the cash market also. Pro also increased sell position. The net short position of FII and Pro together is 121951.

38000 will provide support, and 38500 will work as resistance for Monday

Future Open interest reduced in last two days. PCR is near 1.02.

Astrological forecast

Monday is a full moon and Jupiter star day. 17th Market will be volatile. In most cases, a bearish view gives a good return from full moon to new moon. 

Mercury is in retrograde motion and deposited at Capricorn with Saturn. This planetary position often results in a big trend.

There might be a sharp correction in the market per planetary position.  

Important factors that might influence the market

Positive for market

  • Good collection of GST 
  • GDP for Q2 

Negative for Market

  • INR and dollar conversion
  •  Dollar index 
  •  10-year bond yield 
  •  high crude price 
  •  Rising covid 19

Banknifty trade plan before union budget

  • 38350 will work as a trend change for next week.
  • 38100, 37600, and 37000 will work as support.
  • 38600, 39000 will work as resistance.
Is banknifty bullish or bearish?

If BNF breaks Friday low, BNF might be bearish.

My trade strategy for next week

Weekly positional: I will buy 37600 put and sell double 37000 put. I will also buy 38600 call and sell 39000 call in a 1:2 ratio.

Intraday: I will sell straddle 1500 points above and below the future price. Stoploss with be 1% of margin deployed.

Monday, 10 January 2022

Banknifty future trading price

Banknifty enters in the bullish cycle. It is expected bank nifty will be volatile and bullish this week. We can expect trend change near or after the full moon.

Banknifty future closed comfortably above first resistance 37660 on the daily chart. There are apparent volume and price range expansions in the technical chart.

Today, banknifty closed on the upper range of the Bollinger band. Historically, the upper Bollinger band works as resistance for banknifty.




Experts views on bank nifty

option chain bank nifty

FII and PRO are strong buyers in the market based on open interest analysis of the option chain.

Max put writing observed at 38000 and call writing observed at 39000. Max pain is at 38000. Long build-up happened in the call side followed in the range of 39000 to 40000. 

VIX is 17.48

The non-availability of put writer at ATM will be a concern for a further bullish move.

bank nifty Aaj Kaisa Rahe Ga

Banknifty closed firmly, so there might be a gap up opening tomorrow. 

As per Bayer's rule, traders can expect a significant-top this week. Tomorrow we can see confusing movement in banknifty. Moon will move from Ketu star Aswini to Barani. It is advisable to avoid new trade from 10:54 to 12:45 PM.

Bank nifty share price support and resistance - weekly

  • Resistance:38000,38225,38500,38740,38999 
  • Support:37450,37133,36830,36666

Weekly expiry prediction  

Banknifty expiry will be 38000 as per today's option pain data.

Banknifty technical level for positional trade

Banknifty is positional long until it closes below VWAP in one hour. Two close below VWAP in the hourly chart will indicate a possible trend change.

Bank nifty scalping strategy during high volatile market

It is best to do intraday straddle using VWAP as a reference in the 15 min chart. The trade must be executed with a slight stop loss and a tiny target. 

Reference: Weekly Technical for 10-14 Jan

Thursday, 6 January 2022

bank nifty share price NSE|7th January

How did bank nifty share price perform today?

Banknifty opened with a gap up. During the day it filled the gap but failed to maintain the momentum at the closing hours. India VIX also increased while the price was going up. This normally indicates a bullish view between market participants.

Bank nifty chart analysis


Day time frame bank nifty future is bullish. Today it formed an inside day candle. New long positions will be above 38100.

However, banknifty is bearish in hourly time frame so fresh long positions can only be initiated once the hourly chart becomes bullish.

Open interest analysis of FII and Pro



FII is increasing its short position gradually. Proprietary traders reduced long positions drastically. Retail traders are building long positions.

Astrological prediction for tomorrow

Tomorrow is Jupiter's star day. Jupiter is now influenced by Rahu. I expect closing of the market will be bullish. We can see consolidation to down move during 9:30 AM to 1 PM.

Banknifty intraday levels

  • Banknifty long position can be initiated above 38050
  • Banknifty short position can be triggered below 36490 which is AVWAP support. This area can be a good point to enter a long trade with small stop loss.

Tuesday, 4 January 2022

Banknifty Prediction Tomorrow|5th Jan

How did BankNifty future perform today?

Jupiter squares Rahu, and we saw a significant move in banknifty. Banknifty closed bove AVWAP level 36700. This will act as solid support for banknifty. Banknifty needs to cross previous high (13th December) to regain higher high and lower low structure.

There is also a good rally in nifty 500. It is a temporarily overbought region as per technical indicators.

Open interest data in the option chain

FII and PRO is net buyer in the market. PRO is becoming extreme bullish Market sentiment is "greed." Bank Nifty Jan Future witnessed the liquidation of a 2.34 Lakh contract, with an increase in Cost of Carrying suggests LONG positions were closed today. The market might see profit booking.

This rally is fueled by short-covering. PCR reached 1.42

37000 CE strike has the highest OI, and 36500 PE has the highest OI. Will 37000 will be weekly expiry on 6th January. Option writers are bullish.

Max pain is 36500.

Astrological forecasts

My view based on tomorrow's planetary position market will be bullish initially. I expect the rest of the day will be the premium eating day.

Trading levels: Please click the link "Banknifty for the week 3rd January."  

Below 36750, BNF will be weak. BNF will be strong above 37000

Banknifty achieved weekly target on upside. 


Monday, 3 January 2022

Banknifty prediction tomorrow - 4th Jan

Banknifty had a great bullish day on 3rd January. Bears had a tough job today to protect the position. Traders having a short position in the market took all opportunities to exit the market.

Bannifty future daily chart 



Banknifty in daily candle has a long wick at below. This shows strong buying interest for banknifty in the market. Immediate resistance to banknifty will be the Central Pivot Area in the daily chart. 

Banknifty Barometer on Trader sentiment


FII and PRO are net buyers, and clients become net sellers in the market. High open interest position by PRO in the market shows there might be an unusual dip in the market. Option pain 36000 indicates a possible panic low can be formed within a few days.

Has the budget rally been triggered?

FII is also positive in the cash segment after almost 3 months. 

Astrological forecast for tomorrow 

Banknifty might be bullish in the first hour. Tomorrow is a moon star day, so not suitable for trading after 11 AM.

Banknifty levels for trade  

Positional long can be initiated above 38150. 

In case of a gap, traders might look for a short opportunity o 36500 CE. 

Once bank nifty gives dip, trader right look to short 36000 PE.


 


Sunday, 2 January 2022

Banknifty for the week 3rd January

How did Banknidty future perform in 2021

Banks are high beta sector. The performance of this sector is critical for the economy of the country. In 2021 BNF booked around 14% gain. The overall banking sector underperformed in 2020 and 2021 compared to Nifty 50 & Sensex.

banknifty constituents performance in 2021

Bank nifty spot chart in the hourly time frame

The banknifty hourly chart is bullish. Banknidty will be positionally bullish above 36800. Immediate resistances are 35900, 36060, 36250



FII and Pro open interest data for Indices

This data shows the market is in full bullish mode.


Astrological forecasts of the Indian stock market

The Indian market will be volatile to bullish for the next week. The market gives typically positive returns from the new moon to the full moon.

Factors positive for the Indian market

  • Dowzones, S&P, and NASDAQ are near an all-time high
  • European markets are also trading near lifetime high
  • VIX cooled down and took AVWAP support 
  • GDP growth has a positive impact 

Factors negative for the Indian market

  • crude price
  • Dollar index
  • Increase in number of Covid 19 

Bank nifty weekly levels

35937, i.e., the cube of 33 will act as significant resistance tomorrow. 
My target for BNF in 2022 is 45000 as long as it is trading above 34000.

Sources:
brameshtechanalysis.comValuestocks. in ,  Nifty/Banknifty prediction