Saturday, 4 December 2021

Banknifty analysis and trade plan | 6th Dec21

Banknifty monthly, weekly, daily, and hourly analysis


      Banknifty trading view chart in daily, weekly and monthly timeframe

Banknifty chart shows AVWAP level around 35600 gave good support to Banknifty in monthly, weekly and daily time frame. There was good accumulation near this zone, and banknifty formed a perfect Doji candle in a weekly chart after continuous fall for 3 weeks. 

Any breakout of last week's high can take BNF towards 37400 and 37800.

If  bank nifty has two close below 35600, the market might witness a sharp fall

Banknifty future has a more 100 point premium.

Moving averages

BNF spot is trading above 13 EMA.

Bank nifty spot took support on 34 EMA (35963), and  21 EMA  (37030) will act as a dynamic resistance. 

Indicators

I consider RSI(9) and Eher Fisher to determine strength. 

As per these two indicators, the monthly trend is mildly bullish, but weekly, daily is strongly bearish.

Multi timeframe analysis using CCI indicator

Immediate last 3 days trend is bearish.

Daily candlestick analysis


Gann Astro technical analysis 

Fall started from 27th October. The price time square analysis price falls for 4,16,25 and 49 days. The price achieved 1st price time square in current fall on 29th November. 

A new fall cycle will start if the price breaks low on 29the November. 

Price moves up for 4 days from low of 29th November. If the upmove continues and the high of 3rd December breaks before 9th days from 29th November, we will calculate a new price time analysis for possible upward movement. 


Banknifty option chain analysis

Max pain 37100

PCR 0.93


Data shows FII and PRO became highly bearish within one day. This indicates the market will be very choppy in the coming days.

Options data and premium decay shows possible upside movement of 5%, and the downside is movement is near 0.6%

Astrological view for indices in next week

Solar Eclipse was not visible in India, so it might not significantly impact. 

Mercury and Venus Ingress might give a trending move next week.

Banknifty typically gives a bullish move from the new moon to the full moon. 

International market

The world market is consolidating. The USA is talking to taper bond buying, which will impact the market.

Domestic Market

GDP growth is positive

Major events

RBI policy 6 to 8th December

Banknifty  Weekly levels

Upside 36800, 37230,37750,38220

Downside  35870,35370, 34850,34000


Update on my monthly option strategy



Theta  6800

Vega  -15907

Delta  -26

Total range 33700 - 38300

Will buy synthetic future if the market gives an upward breakout above 36500.

Adjustment 

Will move the straddle for every 500 point movement of banknifty in either direction



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