Tuesday, 30 November 2021

How I am planning to trade Banknifty on 1st Dec 2021

How did banknifty perform today?

Banknifty is very weak. It opened  35598, made high 36773, low 35532, and closed near 36000. Bank nifty daily candle shows rejection at a higher level. My system shows banknifty is in a firm bear grip in daily and hourly time frames.

Banknifty broke 200 DMA.

Future and Options data for Index and banknifty

  • FII reduced short, which is a good sign in a falling market
  • Client net long % 7.p1, FII -2.2%
  • PCR 0.82
  • IV  23.16
  • Historical volatility for 10 days 22.68
  • Historical volatility for 30 days  17.25
  • IV percentile 45.83

What is the daily and weekly chart reading?


The technical chart shows this market is "sell on rise" near the resistance zone and below VWAP in intraday.

Astroview for 1st December 

Tomorrow day lord is MARS, and the moon is at Chitra. Typically Banknifty future gives a significant trending move under this star.
I expect a bullish trending move, at least in the first half. 11 AM to 12 PM market might consolidate or go down. The market will be range-bound in the second half.

Key resistance and supports and trade level as per spot levels

Buy Above 35850 Tgt 35998, 36150 and 36323 

Sell Below 35512 Tgt 35420, 35323 and 35150 

Update on banknifty monthly position trade

Move 2 lots of 38500 CE short to 38000 dec CE

Will exit trade once VIX goes above 25 


 

Monday, 29 November 2021

Banknifty investing and trading plan for 30th November

Banknifty protected 200 MA - What Next?

Key observations before monthly expiry

  • Banknifty saw buying strength at the bottom, and it saved 200 DMA.  
  • Net short by FII and Pro reduced to 301427. 
  • PCR moved from oversold zone to neutral zone, and max pain is 36200.
  • Banknifty faced resistance at 144 ema in the daily chart. If it fails to break this resistance with volume, we might see a banknifty near or below 233 ema. 

Banknifty investing

If banknifty breaks today's low and trades for 15 minutes, will buy bankbess. This accumulation near critical support is my long-term wealth generation and covered call selling strategy. It really works wonders over the long term.

Bank nifty trade plan for tomorrow 


Banknifty is in bear grip. In the current set up no long trade is feasible as there are multiple dynamic resistances

I can go short if banknifty breaks 200 DMA to make position delta neutral as buying options at high volatility is very costly.

Update on banknifty option trading strategy

Booked profit of 2669. Squared off 36200 short straddles and moved to 36500 straddles. 

Banknifty payoff chart 



  • Range 33500 - 38800
  • Delta   11 
  • Theta 5681
  • Vega  -14800

I kept the delta as positive as my view is market might be bullish tomorrow if there is no overnight news. 

Theta and Vega are within my planned range. 



Saturday, 27 November 2021

Banknifty trade plan for December Expiry

Banknifty option strategy based on chart and option data  

Banknifty is in a firm bear grip. The market has fallen irrationally and is now in the oversold zone. 23.6% correct from top happened. There is a high chance that the market will reverse and change to consolidation or buy mode.

Future and Option data 

FII+Pro net short.  They sold 467061contracts as on 26th November market close. Total short by PRO is more than FII.

I considered only option data for the index because option volume is much more than the future.

Banknifty option chain - 2nd December

  • Put option  OI 518349
  • Call option OI 936440

Banknifty option chain -31st December

  • Put option  OI 131751
  • Call option OI 159055

Total change in Banknifty in last November clearing 

  • Open 39432 
  • Close 36025

Banknifty spot  36025 and future 36041 

The premium of December future is  16 points.

Technical Analysis of Banknifty daily char


Last Friday, banknifty broke 144 days EMA and closed near necessary support.  35937 is a 33 cube number that works as support. 

The following support is 233 EMA which is 34750. Banknifty is also very close to going long level as per Camarilla. 

Banknifty option strategy 


Delta for the strategy -10, Theta, and Vega ratio is less than 1:4, which is in my comfort zone.

Banknifty no loss strategy 

Break-even points are 33300 and 38800. This vast range makes this  no loss option strategy 

Payoff chart 




Adjustments :

1. Two lots straddle will be moved to ATM around 3:20 PM every day
2. Will make EOS adjustments if BNF crossed any of the breakeven points 

Banknifty weekly options strategy - Ironfly strategy deployed at 37500


Thursday, 25 November 2021

Day 8:Banknifty trade progress

How banknifty might perform in the December series 

Banknifty September series closed at 37364, and December future is trading at 37548. FNO data indicates that participants carry forward short positions, which is not very comfortable for the December series.

Banknifty Dec future chart in the daily time frame

banknifty daily chart

Banknifty is consolidating between 38000 and 36800. A big trend will emerge once banknity breaks any of the levels. 

The market is still in bear grip in the weekly and daily time frames. However, BNF managed to protect 21 EMA weekly, which is a positive sign for the bull. 

Astroview: Bullish for 26th November

Position option greeks

  • Delta   5 
  • Gamma  -0.092
  • Vega   -34748
  • Theta   4,706
The position has a very high vega. Theta and Vega ratio is near 1:9, which works against position if market volatility increases.

Adjustment - Need to make Theta to Vega ratio near 1:4

2nd Dec weekly strategy - No change in position. Strategy is showing unrealized gain 3000

December monthly strategy 

Added one lot future 

Total profit ( intraday and loss from hedges ) -5000

Total PnL  167000


Wednesday, 24 November 2021

Day 7: How monthly banknifty option strategy perform on 24th November

Has Banknifty come out of bear grip?

Banknifty will be bullish above 39200 and banknifty will be in a strong bear grip below 36800.  I expect a strong convergence of all moving averages before a bullish uptrend. 

Astroview: There will be no clear trend tomorrow.

Banknifty hourly trend


Today, BNF traded within the range  36000 and 38800

Overall delta is -18 

Profit from intraday trade 2000

No change in weekly IRONFLY trade

Total PnL 172000



Tuesday, 23 November 2021

Day6-trading update on Banknifty Option trading strategy

What is the trend of Banknifty?

 Banknifty took support 36680 twice. If BNF holds this level, we can see relief movement till 3900, which is around 50% of last fall. 

Astroview - The market will be bullish tomorrow


Monthly strategy 

Not a good time for a non-directional options trading strategy. 

Loss booked -54000

Current pay off chart

Current position  after today's adjustment 

Dec future 1 lot

38500 Put Dec 2 lots 

37000 Put short 18 lots

38000 Call fast 18 lots

Range 36100 - 38800 

Strategy greeks

  • Delta -5
  • Theta 9780
  • Vega - 38949
  • Gama -0.16

This strategy has negative vega. This will benefit from the fall of volatility.

Possible adjustment - 

As the market is volatile, I will take any adjustment decision near breakeven points on either side. I will use the future to adjust the position. 

To convert the position to a short straddle whenever BNF crosses the breakeven points on either side

Mistakes :

1. Yesterday, I adjusted the position before 3:20 PM. I broke my rule 

2. Yesterday, I created an unbalanced straddle at 3700. This has a pretty extensive range; I should have continued with that strategy.

Weekly strategy - No change made in weekly Ironfly.

Total PnL:170000

I got a few questions like Which investment gives returns as per market rise?

My view is traders should select a volatile index and deploy option trading strategies. A properly managed strategy gives a good return of investment in a rising market, falling market, and while the market is consolidating. Traders need to understand delta and volatility to adjust the option trading strategies to get a consistent return from the market. 

I want to test and document my belief in options strategy.

Monday, 22 November 2021

Day 5 - Update on Banknifty option trading strategies

Update on monthly and weekly Option Strategies 

VIX increased by 18% after a steep fall. 

BATMAN strategy 


Batman-profit

Total profit booked: 1.31 lakh.

New position: 


M2M  -2.03 lakh

The position is currently an unbalanced IRONFLY  at 37000.  




Adjustment: The target is to minimize the M2M loss by moving the strikes at breakeven points.

Weekly Ironfly

Profit booked 1725

New position 


Intrade option short profit 2000


Total profit booked till now 224000 ( approx)

Mistakes :

1. Buying hedge before 3:20 PM 
2. Exit intraday CE short position early
3. Entry in PE short position against the direction of the market 
4. Allowing the BATMAN trade to go high positive delta. 



 

 


Day 2 : Banknifty future trading update

Banknifty gave a big down move moon is at Mrighshira star. Future took support at 2nd September low 36680. The excellent point is banknifty future closed above critical level 37200. 

Banknifty hourly chart 


Overall, banknifty is a firm bear grip. The long week at the bottom of the 2:15 PM candle gives hope for a relief rally. I expect a trend reversal tomorrow second half.

Option greek

  • Delta 8
  • Theta  -250
  • Vega 1000

The position will lose less if the market goes down due to positive vega.


Current position of banknifty future

  • Future Nov long 
  • Put option Dec 38500 long

M2M is -25926

Profit booked Rs 19210 

I will add an extra lot once Ehler goes positive, RSI crosses 55 and future crossed today's high.

In December,  I will use synthetic future instead of future. 





Saturday, 20 November 2021

Day 1: Banknifty future systematic investment plan

Secrets for systematic investment in Banknifty future 

Future is a highly leveraged product. A planned and well-managed investment plan in any future instruments can give an excellent return. I did thorough backtesting for several years on banknifty. Backtesting results show the amazing potential for this type of less talked future trading strategy. These strategies are excellent for regular office goers because they need to check the market only once a day and take action based on rules. 

The strategy is based on the simple principle "Hedge with Edge."  

Rules of the trade 

 1. Define the 2%  risk of account and buy insurance to restrict the max loss to 2%.

2. Follow market structure and trade accordingly.  

3. I take the trade in the direction of the weekly and monthly trends.  

4. If the market goes against my view, I sell options to minimize the loss 

Backtest result for September 2020 when the market went my original bullish view

Banknifty future trade with hedge

Trade rules 

1. Trade banknifty future in the direction of the weekly and monthly trends. If weekly and monthly is bullish, will buy banknifty future

2. Buy an in-the-money put option with less than 30% time value.

3. Sell a call option at 20 deltas if the market trades below VWAP and  RSI in the daily time frame is below 55. 

4. Check the volatility of the market. If the market is low, I buy options and pyramid the same. If volatility is high, I sell options.

5. I add an extra lot after pullback or breakout

6. I will reinvest profit to get the benefits of compounding. 

I found this simple future trading strategy works very well for office goers. 

Banknifty Future trading with hedge

Positions

  • Bought 1 lot Nov BNF @38132
  • Bought 1 lot Nov 385000 PE

Positions Greek

  • Delta 5
  • Gamma 0.013
  • Vega 260
  • Theta -643
Payoff chart

BNF-future-hedge

The rationale behind the bullish trade  

  • Bank nifty weekly is still above 21 ema.  
  • As per Gann's method, a pullback can continue for 25 days. 
  • From 20th April low and 25th October high,. 38% retracement level is at 37212, and 50% retracement point is 36200.

Max loss for the position 6581

Total investment 32000 for one lot 

Adjustment plan : 

Will sell intraday call once Banknifty breaks last Friday's low. 

Please the link to reach the banknifty investing home page.

Thursday, 18 November 2021

Day4: Banknifty trading update & plan for expiry week

Will Banknifty Crash Next Week?

The market has Volatility, Uncertainty, Confusion, and Ambiguity. This is the most difficult to trade and invest in the market. The banknifty might consolidate, breaks down, or might reach a  new high.

The market structure is bullish on the weekly and monthly time frame. In a daily time frame, the trading strategy should be to sell near resistance and buy near the support level. . Once Nifty 500 breaks the 14000 level, a deep correction and panic selling can be witnessed.

Please scroll down to update how I achieved more than 2% return on a margin within 2 days.

Broader market structure - Nifty 500


Nifty 500 is still in HH and HL structure weekly and trading above 13 EMA. 14900 is the immediate support, and the next support is 14100. If the broader market trades below 14000, the market might enter in deep correction instead of a pullback in the bull market.

International market

There are some uncertainly but till now there been no panic in the market.

Technical analysis of Banknifty across multiple time frame














Banknifty is very bearish in the daily chart and trading near 13 EMA in the weekly chart.

Banknifty broke 41209 (315deggree angle) and completed 5 cycles downwards from 27 Oct. 38025 is critical Gann level and  AVWAP level.

The next level is 37637, which is Gann level, as will AVWAP support for 28th July low. 

There is a gap of 50 points near 37500. 

As mentioned in banknifty levels as per Gann, price time square is also 375326 Nov6 Nov '2021 if the price breaks 38025 on the next trading day. 

Two subsequent Doji in daily might trigger a big trend soon.

Future Option data of banknifty for next expiry

  • Total call side OI 658407 
  • Total put side OI 406787 
  • PCR 0.63, and it is very close to the last one year PCR (.557) 
  • Max pain strike 38000
Options data indicate market participants took significant selling positions.

Astroview of banknifty for monthly expiry week

Monday - Moon will be Mrigshira star till 10:30. The day will be volatile.

Tuesday - It is a Rahu star day, so we might see a trend change pst 10:00 AM

Wednesday - Bullish day

How did weekly and monthly option trading strategies work today? 

Weekly Ironfly

Closed 40000 CE sell and rolled down to 39500 CE. 

Booked profit 1455

IRON fly payoff chart

IRON fly will be in some profit in downside. A reversal can give an excellent return to the strategy. I will continue with the plan till expiry with an expectation of reversal.

Update on monthly BATMAN strategy

Once the price traded below 38000 for more than 15 minutes, I moved long straddle from 39000 to 38000. Booked profit in 41000 call option.

Position update

Long straddle at 38000 4 lots 

Short put at 370000     14 lots 

Short call at 39500      14 lots

Payoff chart

Adjustment plan

If the market breaks last Thursday's low, I will shift 39500 CE sell to 39000 CE.
If the market breaks 37000, will create a short straddle at 37000 and adjust buy legs accordingly. 

Profit booked in BATMAN strategy: 75555

Total PnL after Day 4

Total profit booked on 18 Nov.: 77010 

Total profit as of 19 Nov. 2021:90506

The target of "2% within 10 days" was accomplished


I will continue to update this blog for all future journeys. This is my trade journal for analysis. Thanks for the excellent feedback received. That's are encouraging.

Disclaimer: These are not investment advice. I am just documenting my trades during my learning process. This is for entertainment and education purposes for all, including me. 

Wednesday, 17 November 2021

Day 3: Update on Option trading strategies and plan for 18th Nov 2021

Possible Banknifty Levels based on Gann Price Time Square

Today till 11, Ketu was day lord and Raghu sub lord. This combination gives a trending move. Market made day's high at 10:30 AM and double top around 11:10 AM. The market gave up all its morning gain and closed near 38100.

The market is trading below 13,32,34, and 55 EMA in the daily chart.

The current downfall started on 26th October, Today was the 16th day, and the price broke the 4th and 9th day low.

The price moved from the 4th day low of downfall to the 16th day low is 550 points.

In this period, time moved 2 units and price advanced 1 unit.

As per the Gann method price can go up to 37537 on or before 26th November if it breaks 38025. As per Gann levels, 38025 is critical support. Bank nifty took resistance and support both around 38000 stories from 16th Sep'21 to 10th Oct21.

Banknifty daily price chart













Future and Options data for banknifty for monthly expiry

  • Spot price     380411
  • Future price  38100
  • Put OI    213495
  • Call OI  320406
  • Max pain 38200 
  • PCR 0.52
FII+PRO are net sellers and the Client is a net buyer in market. They reached an extreme. so a trending move is around.

Update on monthly BATMAN strategy

Sold another call at 41000 because the market is bearish. Overall position delta is 24. 

If the market goes down, I may have to sell future to keep the position delta neutral.

Once the price trades below 38000 for an hour, the monthly BATMAN strategy will be closed and moved to 38000, or an additional put option will be purchased beyond 37000. 

If volatility increases, the high negative vega of this strategy will hurt the position. The loss due to negative vega needs to be mitigated.

Payoff chart of monthly BATMAN strategy





Update on weekly IRONFLY strategy

Booked 38000 PE at a profit of 4250. Bought one lot 38200 PE. This adjustment ensures no loss if the market goes farther down, but the strategy will make a good return for any reversal.

Payoff chart of IRONFLY strategy


Current P&L for both strateies

Realized profit till 17th November 2021 :

   9246 (15th November)

+ 4250 (17th November)

13496

Unrealized gain from option trading strategies

Monthly BATMAN   ( expiry 30th December) 2376

Weekly Ironfly    ( expiry 25th November) 2373

Target 30k by 1st December 2021

To know more on best investments for double profit in the short term, read the below articles :

2% Return in 10 days, Safe Banknifty Option Trading Strategies

How To Compound Money Using Ironfly option strategy

Please visit our home page for regular updates on banknifty trading strategy 

Tuesday, 16 November 2021

How did Banknifty option trading strategies perform today?

Performances of weekly and monthly nondirectional strategy for Banknifty

Banknifty overall strength was bearish today. 38025, Gann level is a critical support for banknifty.

Total open interest

  • Call side 276748
  • Put side 191016

Astro's prediction for tomorrow is bullish.









Option position for BATMAN strategy for December 2021


Payoff chart for BATMAN strategy


Today, I sold an additional put at 37000 because tomorrow I expect to be a bullish day.

Exist plans without adjustment

  • Banknifty future closed below 38000 or above 40000 if no adjustment is made.
  • Otherwise, it will follow the adjustment discussed in the banknifty BATMAN trading strategy for the December expiry.

Update on 25th November IRONFLY option strategy






The price moved near the lower break-even point so, I sold a call at 40000 CE. Now, the maximum loss on the downside is below 3000. However, the loss above 40000 will be unlimited.

I added an additional lot for all the existing 4 legs. 

Exit plan

  • Once profit crossed above 3400
  • Banknifty future trades above VWAP for 30 minutes at least.
  • The price crossed below 38000 or above 39500
  • Otherwise, will close the strategy on 23rd November and place a new deployment at ATM.
Possible future trade

If BNF broke last two days high, will buy two lots of future. We will discuss the strategy if I take the trade

Profit and loss for banknifty trading strategy


Realized profit till 16th November 2021  - 9246 

Unrealized profit 

Monthly BATMAN strategy  ( expiry 30th December)   4421

Weekly Ironfly strategy ( expiry 25th November )           1740

Target 30k by 1st December 2021

Related articles

2% Return in 10 days, Safe Banknifty Option Trading Strategies

How To Compound Money Using Ironfly option strategy


Please visit our home page for regular updates on banknifty trading strategy 


Monday, 15 November 2021

How To Compound Money Using Ironfly option strategy

Secret Tips of Making money using Ironfly

I deploy Ironfly using weekly options for 10 days to expire. My target is to make a 2% return on a margin within 10 trading days. The combination of weekly Ironfly and monthly BATMAN strategy helps traders enhance the profitability and probability of profit in the combined trade. BANF is a high volatile instrument, so I prefer this defined risk strategy.

IRON FLY set up for the week of 25th November 2021


Ironfly Payoff chart














Estimated margin

Rs. 65000 for one lot

Option Greeks for the strategy

Theta 900

Vega 950

Exit plan

1. Profit 1200 to 1500 per lot.

2. Price hit breakeven point at any side

Adjustment

I prefer not to make any adjustments in the weekly Ironfly trade.

The issue with IF is an overnight gap up or gap down. In the weekly strategy, the gama effect comes quickly, so it becomes difficult to manage. In this scenario, the monthly BATMAN strategy gains. I adjust the gap and gap down scenario using BNF future.

Please click the link to get "day3" update on banknifty option strategy performance

Banknifty trading strategy for Dec'21

2% Return in 10 days

Safe Banknifty Option Trading Strategies

I am documenting my options strategy in this blog for myself. My target is to earn consistent returns with minimum drawdown.

The top 2 benefits of these deployments are:

1. This strategy gives regular income from weekly Iron fly.
2. The range of the strategy is extensive, so I don't have to adjust the positions.

How combined BATMAN and IRONFLY strategy can give 50% return in a year.

I back-tested the data for the last two years using Fintester and Opstra backtests simulator. I found the results are very encouraging. Hence, I decided to conduct a forward test for the next 12 months. In this blog, I will do a journal of my daily trading and all rationals and mistakes I committed in a live market.

BNF hourly chart




















The market is weak and closed below VWAP and all other critical moving averages in a one-hour chart. There was a good OI build-up of around 39000. 

Astroview is negative for tomorrow. 

Hence, I sold an extra call 41000.

BATMAN strategy payoff chart











As long as BNF is trading within 36100 and 41800, the trade will not give a loss. The strategy will give maximum profit at 37000 and 41000.

Planned adjustments along with price movements

1. Once the price crosses and trades below 38300 ( 1SD), will buy far OTM put near 36000. Once the price crosses 41000, will by OTM call around 41800.

2. If the price crosses below 37000, will sell 20 delta calls. If the price crosses 41000, will sell 20 deltas put. I usually do 1 and 2 together, but it depends on the volatility of the market. It is better to avoid option buying while volatility is up.

3. If price crossed breakeven, booked the profitable legs and converted the strategy to an inverted strangle.

However, I prefer to close the strategy at 37000 or 41000. I will deploy a new system because adjustment of the existing process creates more issues.

Positions details

















Position greeks

Delta -10
Theta 2990
Vega -13904
Gama -0.04



3 essential points regarding option greeks

  1. ATM options are most sensitive to volatility
  2. Theta decays fast for far OTM options.
  3. Theta decay rate increases with an increase in volatility.

Click the link to understand the ironfly strategy using banknifty weekly options.

I started this experiment on 9-11-2021. Click the Banknifty trading strategy using options to know the previous trade details.

I will track the profit and loss without other expenses

15-11-2021 PnL 9246

Please click the link to get "day3" update on banknifty option strategy performance

Sunday, 14 November 2021

Trading strategy for Banknifty

Safe Banknifty trading strategy for regular income from market

Date:14-11-2011

Here you will learn a safe strategy for trading banknifty using options

The best way to trade volatile instruments like BNF, deploy a directional and non-directional strategy. 

I deploy BATMAN strategy around 45 days to expiry. This strategy gives has a wide range and works pretty well in volatile markets. I deploy non-directional strategies like an iron condor or iron fly using weekly options. 

I exit from the strategy once it reaches near breakeven or just break the breakeven point. I simply make a new deployment using the same process. I set up an alert in Zerodha sentinel to track future levels where I should exit and a warning in the sensible option tool once the weekly strategy gives a 2% return. 

I use Zerodha for weekly options and Goodwill broker for monthly expiry strategy. 

Banknifty trading strategy for options - BATMAN
  • BUY long straddle at ATM
  • SELL OTM option. 
The critical point of this strategy is the range. This strategy can give losses beyond 35800 and above 43100. 

This strategy provides a loss in the central point ( i.e., 39500) if the debt for buying the long option is more than credit received due to the selling of OTM options. I minimized the loss by selling farther OTM   36000 PE and 43000 CE.
  • It is reasonably safe because it has  7000 points range.  
  • OTM legs decay fast 
  • Strategy becomes profit once it moves on either side. 
Positions details 





















As of 14th November, the strategy generated a 2% return. 

In the following article,  I will discuss more than adjustment using vega and delta. 
This will be a long post and will update daily till I close the whole position.
Banknifty is a high volatile instrument. 


Banknifty trading strategy for options - BATMAN

Strategy can be credit, debit, or almost debit=credit condition.
I deployed this strategy on 9th November for December expiry. 
I long straddle at 39500, which was almost ATM at the time of execution of the strategy. 

Payoff chart for BATMAN strategy

Why do I consider this as a safe strategy?

My exit conditions :

1. 3% profit over total margin deployed 
2. Delta of short OTM legs coming close to 40 delta 

I avoid any adjustment in the existing options strategy existing because of volatility mismatch... Volatility impacts buyers and sellers. This position is very much sensitive to vega as it has a high negative Vega. Vega is more than 5 times theta. 

This means 5 days of theta decay will require to balance a 1% rise in volatility.  

Date : 15--11-2021   10:45:00

I closed the trade. The trade gave profit 9246. The yield did not include expenses for the trade. 



Trade gave a profit of 3% within 6 days. 

 I initiated BATMAN  strategy with 4 lots for December and 25th November weekly Ironfly.



Banknifty trade plan for 15th November

Banknifty trade plan review for 12th Nov analysis 

Price broke 38417 and took support from a Gann level near our target 38025. On Friday, BNF formed a classical open-low and remained bullish the whole day. Banknifty future gave 1st target on higher side 38800. This was a good day as things worked as per banknifty analysis

Banknifty daily chart 

In the daily chart, bullish targets are 39000, 39400, 40200 and 41000

Bearish trade can be initiated if the price took resistance near 39000 or trade below the previous day low. 

Gann's support level is  38800, and the resistance level is 39200.

Relevant data for Banknifty for next week trading 

ATM IV 31.5
HV 20.2 
Max pain 39000
ATM IV is greater than realized volatility. It is good to initiate a short ATM straddle. 

Astroview for Monday - Bullish and volatile

I expect volatility and both sides' movement in both sides in BNF. I deployed an evergreen banknifty trading strategy for December.

 Please click the link to view the latest update on banknifty

Saturday, 13 November 2021

Tatasteel share price and trade plan

Tata steel share - A high probability investment/ trading plan 

I considered below four points as an investment story for tata steel 

1. Tatasteel posted a robust net profit in the September quarter.

2. TV Narendran, MD, Tata Steel interview encourages investors and traders to continue investing in the steel industry. In the interview, Mr. Narendran explains the plan of debt reduction and further infusion of CAPEX. 

3. There is a significant investment in steel and associated mining and metal sectors. 

According to the data released by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), between April 2000 and March 2021, Indian metallurgical industries attracted FDI inflows of US$ 14.74 billion. 

According to Mr. Seshagiri Rao, Joint Managing Director of JSW Steel Ltd., in FY22, steel demand is expected to increase by 17% to 110 million tonnes, driven by rising construction activities.

4. Ruling planet Saturn for the steel industry.

Tata steel share price 



Technical analysis 

Price is in a symmetrical triangle.


My trade plan on tata steel share:

1. Buy levels are 1370  (breakout) and support levels like  1250, 1200. 

2. Invest more once the price breaks the previous week's high. 

3. Invest near support levels after a decent pullback.

4. Sell near ATM call once I acquire around 425. 

Please read my previous article on Tata steel's latest news

 

Reference: 

1. Steel prices will remain volatile but uptrend to continue: Tata Steel MD. Read the full article on Economictimes

2. Iron & Steel Industry in India. Click the link IBEF to read the whole story.



 

Thursday, 11 November 2021

Banknifty trade plan for 12th Nov 2021

How did Banknifty perform today?

Banknifty made a low 38444. It broke  29/10 low 38610 but closed near 38680. Banknifty is fully in bear grip. The same was expected as per yesterday's banknifty trade plan

Open interest and option data 

  • Short position build up in bank nifty future
  • Max pain 39000
  • PCR  .77 (Monthly)
  • Total open interest put side 167973
  • Total open interest call side 219901
  • 38000 is strong support
  • 39000 is strong resistance

Gann price time analysis for 12th November 2021


  25th Oct         high  41935              
  29th Oct         high  39890              low    38606         
  8th Nov         high  39750               low    39051        
 11th Nov         high   39044              low 38444           


If the price breaks 38417, it may go till 38025 by 16th or 17th Nov'2021.

If today's low is maintained, the banknifty future can bounce back and 1st target will be 38800.  

Astrological view 

Today was moon star day. It is important to observe the breakout of today's high and low. I expect a gap up or gap down for tomorrow morning because we will have the Saturn and Mars combination till 10:40 AM.

Hourly price chart of Banknity

banknifty-tradingview-hourlychart


Price is trading below all critical moving averages in the one-hour time frame.
It is best to take bear spread or credit ratio call spread. I initiated a 1:3 ratio call spread near 38800 and will hold the same for next week.

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Wednesday, 10 November 2021

Banknifty trade plan on expiry day -11th Nov 21

Will Banknifty Give a Strong positive Movement?

We will do technical analysis for the BNF chart daily, hourly, and 5 minutes to get a clue in the direction. In all time frames, Bazar is showing strong negative sentiments. Option analysis also shows supports the same view.

Daily chart














BNF is trading below 20 days moving average.
It took support on 34 ema today, i.e., 30100. 39100 is also the convergence of multiple AVWAP lines. 

RSI ( 9) is below 50, and  Ehler Fisher is below 0

The chart shows bearish strength.
Hourly chart

Banknifty future took support on 233 ema on the hourly chart, and the trend is negative. 

Multi time frame CCI chart

banknifty tradingview chart














BNF gave a gap-down and consolidated the whole day. BNF broke 39200 Gann level, and the subsequent necessary support is 38800. 

The overall trend is bearish.


Option chain for monthly expiry 

Put option  OI   159953
Call option  OI  194616
There is an unusual gap between the call option and the put option.
FII added more 5k short position. Client data shows they are in long positions.

Astrology view 

Important planetary time cycle for tomorrow  9:45 AM,1:40 PM,2:45 PM 

I guess the market will go down further at the beginning. Next, it will be volatile. There might be a sharp short-covering after 2 PM 

What is the possible Gann price time square point in this downtrend

1st day  25th Oct         high  41935

4th day 29th Oct         low    38606

9th day  8th Nov         low    39051

Price is consolidating within 38809 and 39205. 
The price needs to break 4th day low 38606 by the 9th day or 16th-day candle to continue downward. 
There is price-wise, and timewise correction is going on bank nifty future price.

How I Will plan my trade for expiry

Once the price is close to 38800, I will buy 39000 Call and sell 39500 Call. This will be a 1:2 credit call ratio spread.

Alternatively, I may create a 1: 2 credit bear spread once the price is near 39200.