Sunday, 31 October 2021

TVSmotor - Is it good to go long?

 TVS motor fundamental analyses based on last 20 Qtrs

It is a midcap company. Last Friday closing price was 662 and future closed at 664.25

1. ROE, Profit, Sales   growth  good

2. 50% time TVS motor outperforms Reliance

3.Valuation    600 - 700

TVS motors technical analysis
TVS-motor-weekly







TVS motor daily technical analysis


In the daily time frame, we observed increase in volume and price breaking an important resistance.

PCR .4
Maxpain  630
rice and open interest build up shows short cover

As par my view, TVS motor is good for buy 

How to entry in long trade ?

I enter a trade in 5 min timeframe using multi-timeframe CCI



I will buy in cash once below conditions met

1. CCI 34 30 goes above 120 and CC 8 5 goes below 100. 
2. when  one candle in 5 min close above 676

Initial stop loss 580

Update on 1st November 

I have a plan to buy 50 shares of TVS motor in 5 installments.
Bought 10  shares at 674.65. I put GTT sales order 635. Maximum risk 390
I will add another 10 shares once it trades above 684 for 15 minutes. 
Next, I will add weekly if it breaks the previous week high or after a decent pullback.

 To get the latest analysis on banknifty and other nifty 50 stocks , click the link to visit our home page banknifty investing home page

Are Inflation and prosperity the faces of same coin?

Why do we need to do trading in the equity markets?

We heard about the good old days where a person manages the whole month with only a salary of Rs. 10 per month. Inflation increases post-world war 2. Income at the hand of people also increases at the same time. 

Here is an excellent article on  Inflation precedes prosperity by Jay. We all are working hard to earn more, to get more return from our savings 

If we manage to earn 12% per annum, inflation takes 7 to 8% silently from that profit. 

Here is an insightful article by Kapil on How much money do you need to be financially free in India?

Trading with defined risk is the only option to have a positive return on savings post taxes and inflation. 


To get the latest analysis on banknifty and other nifty 50 stocks , click the link to visit our home page banknifty investing home page

SBI option chain

Weekly option strategy based on  SBIN option chain 

My view is bullish for SBIN. There are various ways long trade can be initiated.

1. Buying cash 

2. Buying SBI future 

3. Creating a bull spread 

4. Creating ratio spread with delta hedging

SBIN Option Chain

SBI-optionchain

SBIN IV Chart 

SBIN-IVchart

 source:sensibull

SBIN 20 days realized volatility 25  and ATM IV from the option chain 49

SBIN result is due on 3rd Nob 2021

I expect volatility will increase till the result declaration

I may buy 520 CE and sell 540 CE

Strategy P&L on the expiry day i.e. 25th Nov

Margin required  60000

Maximum profit  20000

Maximum loss     10000

Let us analyze how the strategy will perform under various conditions on 3rd Nov 9:00 AM


 

No change in IV, SBI close at 520, the strategy will give Rs. 2500 profit per lot

No change in IV SBI close at 480, the strategy will give Rs.3800 loss per lot

 I will book the strategy once it gives profit around. 

 Update on 1st November 

I created a 1:2 call ratio spread today . I bought 520 call and sold 560 call

Margin blocked 2.3 lakh
Brake even 598 

Please click the link to read SBI share price and options strategy discussion because I am long in cash market: SBI share price and trade plan.


To get the latest analysis on banknifty and other nifty 50 stocks , click the link to visit our home page banknifty investing home page

Saturday, 30 October 2021

Banknifty trade plan for 1st November 2021

My BNF trading plan for Monday 

Banknifty is in a make of break region. 

Here is my simple plan based on 5 min, 30 min, and 1-hour charts. 

I have shorted 4 lots based on multi-time fame Nimblr set up. 

My exit plan from an existing short position 








I am using the Hilega Milega set up by NK Sinha. Once 30-minute candle above RSI 50, I will exit from short positions. 

I will go long once RSI goes above 50, price trades above AVWAP for 15 minutes. 

I will do pyramiding based on Nimblr multi-timeframe CCI and candlestick pattern. 

5 points to consider for banknifty investing and trading on Monday

1. BNF closed above Friday pivot point

2  Price closed above VWAP

3. VIX is down by 1%

4. Selling pressure at 39500 PE and 39000 PE

5. BNF will trade volatile and positive till 11 AM as par Gann Astro trade set up

I will share an update on this plan on Monday post

 


Friday, 29 October 2021

Banknifty for 1st November

 How did BNF perform on 29th October?

Banknifty future corrected further today. November future closed at 39443. The market made panic low in the morning and traded in a range the whole day. BNF formed a long leg Doji candle above 20 MA in the daily time frame. As long the market closes above 20 DMA, will consider this as a normal pullback. 

baf-eod-tradingview-chart

BNF took support at Gann levels 38805, AVWAP levels 38800 to 38900 levels twice. 

In my view, BNF will give multiple opportunities to trade for small targets. 

Multi timeframe indicator gave a sell signal on 27th October at 14:40 PM. Set up gave multiple opportunities to pyramiding on 28th Oct 11:15 Am,13:10 PM, 29th October 9:55 AM, and 14:35 PM.

The trade setup is still in bearish mode. Till now setup gave more than 1500 points in BNF. Bear should hedge their trade as the market can bounce back.

I prefer to follow a simple price chart and my setup as it gives clarity to traders.

Banknifty chart view for 1st Nov 

Bank nifty aaj kaisa rahega is a common question on my youtube and Instagram channel. 

Trader trade chart and do not predict market direction. I will continue in a bear trend with ITM call hedge. This hedge will help me to protect my profit.

I am an avid follower of the Gann Astro trading method. Hence, I also refer Drikpanchange to check the NSE chart for the day.  Based on planetary combinations and by the habit of planets, it looks like the day will confusing.

IndusInd Bank raises Rs 2,800 crore debt - Time to buy?

IndusInd Bank raised Rs 2,800 crore by issuing bonds. These bonds will mature in 10 years. It has a coupon rate of 8.11 percent. The bonds are rated AA+ by Crisil and India Ratings.

Indusind share price weekly time frame 



Under the new CEO, IndusInd’s asset quality remains stable. Deposit reported growth of 21% YoY. Non-interest income grew by 18% YoY (up 3% QoQ). PAT grew by 73% YoY.

It might be an interesting story for traders to watch how price action behaves post-Diwali.

The share can be bought after the breakout of 1320 with good volume. It may reach 1600

To get the latest analysis on banknifty and other nifty 50 stocks, click the link to visit our home page banknifty investing home page

Diwali 2021 Muhurat stock selection - SBI

Diwali 2021 Muhurat time  

One-hour special 'Muhurat' trading between 6:15 pm and 7:15 pm on 4th Nov'21.

I believe in the Indian economy. The latest banking results are very encouraging.  NPA of some leading banks has been reduced.

I decided to buy SBI stocks in this Muhurat. I am using the Jupiter cycle for investment in SBI.

SBI share price action chart

Trading view chart


SBI is in a bullish phase in a one-day time frame. It gave a good correction in the last two days. 

Fundamental analysis for SBI share price 

  • Return on equity, sales growth, free cash flow, and EPS for 5 years to understand how a company manages its business. 
  • More than 50% time in the last 21 quarters SBI beats Nifty 50 return
  • The fair value price should be around 700 for SBI

My investment strategy for SBI

I will start accumulating SBI shares whenever the price crosses yesterday's high. I will place a GTT order to buy state bank shares whenever it breaks the previous week's high. 

This simple technique will ensure I am investing whenever there is positive momentum. This will be a continuous process for the next year. Will book profit whenever total profit will be more than 10%

There will be no stop-loss in this method. 

Will invest lumpsum whenever SBI share price corrects by 10%, 20%, or near AVWAP, 100 or 200 days moving average.

I have a plan to accumulate SBI stocks, whenever RSI (2) comes below 5 in the daily time frame. This I will do using auto trading in Kite. Zerodha streak is the best tool for this kind of algorithmic trading.

I will buy 100 shares initially. Will put GTT orders to buy 50 shares in Zerodha. I will invest 100 shares whenever it will come to long-time support. I will put GTT orders for long-time investment. 

Please click the link to know SBI option chain  




 

To get latest analysis on banknifty and other nifty 50 stocks ,click the link to visit our home page banknifty investing home page

Thursday, 28 October 2021

My banknifty trading plan for 29th October

How did Banknifty perform on 28th October?

FII was bearish on the market and astrological view was negative. The market had a bearish move the whole day. It is the largest fall in the last 6 months.

The market went down from opening hours. Once BNF broke Gann support and AVWAP levels around, 40800, the market went in the grip of bears.

Today. multi-timeframe CCI indicator gave two opportunities to short BNF.

BNF took support on 34 cubes i.e. 39304. 

Option strike with the selling price 40000 PE, 40000 CE

Option strike with buying pressure 38600 CE and 39400 PE

Is the correction an opportunity to go long in banking stocks?

The trader enters the market based on price. Once BNF builds positive momentum in one hour chart, we will go long. Once the market gives closes below 20 SMA, traders can take bearish trade with SL at Gann resistance levels. 

I am planning to accumulate  HDFC bank and SBI bank for the long term based on the last one-year price performance and fundamental quality.

Trading plan for 29th October

Gann support and resistance based on natural numbers square

Resistance 39601 and support 39205. The range 38950 -39000 will work as strong support there are multiple AVWAP supports. moving average and Gann supports available.

Astroview is consolidation. Tomorrow moon star will change from Saturn star to Mercury star.

Banknifty trading plan for 28-10-202

 Astroview of  Banknifty for 28-10-2010

Banknifty might fall post 9:30 AM and there might be some recovery in the second half. Today will be overall bearish. I will avoid trading from 11:20 AM to 12:20 PM 

Technical analysis of BNF

Banknifty closed near Gann support 40800. If BNF breaks 40807. The next important Gann support level is at 40400 which is also close to the  AVWAP line 


Banknifty tradingview chart 2810

Banknifty entered in a bearish trend as par multi time frame CCI indicator. 41200 to 41300 will act as resistance for BNF.

PCR is below 1

Banknifty expiry range 40800 to 40900

Banknifty is bullish in the hourly time frame. I will look for buying opportunities near 40856 which is also a daily pivot.

This is my personal analysis and not a recommendation for sale.


To get the latest analysis on banknifty and other nifty 50 stocks , click the link to visit our home page banknifty investing home page

Tuesday, 26 October 2021

Banknifty analysis for 27th October

How did the Bank nifty perform on 26th Oct?

Banknifty consolidated between 41930 and 40900. It was a good day for the straddle sellers as VIX reduced by 4.5%.

banknifty share price 26102021

Banknifty 5 min chart with multi-time fame indicator. CCI indicator shows markets trading with bullish bias but did not give any chance to initiate a long trade.

The market made a low around 11:30 AM  as mentioned yesterday's post.

BNF 1 hour line chart

banknifty chart trading view

In a one-hour time frame, BNF consolidated between 40018 and 39627. It gave impulse on 21st Oct around 13:15 PM. Wave structure will remain till it is trading above 40401. 

BNF trading plan for 27th October:

Bullish trade above 41617. 

Bearish trade below 39500. 

It is advisable to avoid positional short in a strong bullish market. 

Astrological view

The market might make a panic low during early trading hours. 

I might not trade tomorrow based on a personal horoscope setting.

To get the latest analysis on banknifty and other nifty 50 stocks, click the link to visit our home page banknifty investing home page

Monday, 25 October 2021

Banknifty for 25th October

Banknifty trading view post-25th October trading hours

I use Trdingview Pro version for swing trading. 

Below is the chart for Banknifty's future. Horizontal lines are Gann static levels. I use 135 degrees and 315 degrees values as major cycle start or end, 

These lines work as good support and resistance lines. 

I follow the Nimblr multi-timeframe CCI indicator on the 5-minute chart for swing trading.  

Banknifty share price chart

bank nifty share price 25102021

The chart tells me the market is trading with a bullish bias. Banknifty future took support at Gann 315 degree line 41209. It might face resistance at 41617.

Bank Nifty investment analysis for 26th October 2021

 How did Banknifty perform on 25th October?

Banknifty opened gap-up and crawl along with Bollinger Band higher level. 

It made the day's high around 12 PM. BNF gave breakout first 15 min PRB around 10:16 AM. It formed a higher lower low around 2:30 PM. 

Banknifty October future closed at 41342 ( +2.34%). It traded the whole day with a bullish bias as predicated yesterday based on the NSE horoscope at 9:15 AM.

BNF is trading above 5 days on average VWAP, PCR is above 1. Total OI changed 14.0% so there is a long build-up in the future and call unwinding happened in 9 strikes. However, BNF closed below pen price, below day VWAP, and spot below pain.

Option strike  with buying pressure 40400 CE, 40600 CE

Option strike with selling pressure 41000 PE & 40500 PE

Plan for 26th October'21

  • Banknifty will be bullish if it trades above 41820 and protects 41080. 
  • BNF is nontradable between  41080 to 40450
  • BNF will be bearish below 40400

915 horoscope of NSE shows possible weakness in the market. The important time for the 26th of October is 11:40 AM.

Expected monthly expiry range 40400 to 41000

To get the latest analysis on banknifty and  other nifty 50 stocks,click the link to visit our home page:  banknifty investing home page

To get the latest analysis on banknifty and other nifty 50 stocks, click the link to visit our home page banknifty investing home page.

Sunday, 24 October 2021

Banknifty levels for 25th oct to 29th oct

 Banknifty levels for the week of 25/10/21 to 29/10/2021


Banknifty is in a strong bull market. There is a scope of upwards movement considering the increase of Nifty from the previous high. 

The target for 25th October

Buy 40452 1st target 40502, 2nd target 40553 

sell 40401 1st target 40351, 2nd target 40301

weekly level 

Buy 40603     1st target 40704

Sell  40401    1st target  40301

Important time based on daily panchang 10:00 AM and 2:20 PM

The market might give a large one-way movement. 

My trade plan

Buy 40600CE and sell 42000 CE  if the market gives a buy signal.

In case the market gives  a sell signal, will  buy 40200 PUT and sell 39000 PE 

I will do a debit spread as I expect the market might give a big movement.


To get latest analysis on banknifty and other nifty 50 stocks ,click the link to visit our home page banknifty investing home page