Sunday, 30 January 2022

Is Banknifty Bearish In budget week

How to trade banknifty in a budget week?

Banknifty is trading above 13 MA (35321) in the monthly time frame, closed above monthly Pivot (35534) and above AVWAP (37348) from 1st October high. The major trend is bullish.

Banknifty spot is trading well above 50 moving average in the weekly timeframe. 35650 provides strong support. Long term trend is bullish.

In daily time frame, banknifty is trading above 21 ema and closed above 1 st Pivot resistance 37330.

BNF spot is bullish in monthly, weekly, and daily time frames as per my technical analysis.

In the daily time frame price is trading well below 50-day vma over RSI (9). This shows weakness in the market. This is based on NK Sinha's Hilega Milega strategy which I follow.

Future and option data

FII are net sellers in index future, cash, and options data. This happened during COVID fall. You may watch an interesting video by Shailesh saraf FII data hints Nifty crash in February 2022.


Astrological view

Monday overall market might be bullish considering the forthcoming budget

4th Feb to 8th Feb market will be very sensitive and we may witness some big fall

Neural analysis for the Indian market 











As per neural analysis, the market might make a low in February.

You may refer to the link for the bank Nifty range from 2006-2021 by Brahmesh Bhandari.

Weekly trading Levels


Daily options trading strategy 

1. I will buy the option once the price breaks its 15 min opening range. I will maintain strict stop loss above the previous 5-minute candle. Buying option needs to be in tune with VIX VIX will also work as support and resistance tomorrow. 

2. Will sell the option in the direction of the trend based on the super trend (10,3). However, there might not be any theta decay due to high volatility. 



HDFCBANK in budget week -bullish or bearish

How I will trade HDFCBANK in the coming week?

Last week I was personally bullish on HDFCBANK so I took hedged long future trade.

My exiting option trade strategy




PnL  of the long future hedged strategy



Profit booked         33605

Unrealized profit   (43587)

Margin 2 lakh 

Breakeven 1573

Target profit 5% of deployed capital


Plan for this week 










HDFC bank broke a 50-week simple average in the previous week. Any two closures below the previous week's low will confirm the bear trend. 

Supports in daily chart  1410, 1365 and 1300

Future and option data analysis for HDFCBANK

  • ATM IV 27.5
  • The realized volatility  for the last 20 days 20

Open interest

  • 1500 CE  2.6 M
  • 1400 PE  966K
Fundamental analysis of HDFC bank

1. Positive sales growth
2. Increasing free cash flow 
3. Price to sales ratio 6
4. PE ratio 22.5 
5. PEG ratio 1.2
3. Strong process-oriented company

FII data 

FII is net bearish in index future, cash market, and index option 

Astrological sensitive days 

4th to 10th February will be sensitive due to various aspects, Jupiter & moon will cross their dead points in the sign

Plan 

  1. If HDFCBANK breaks two weeks low at 1410 and trades below one-hour post-budget session, will close long future.
  2. Sell another Call during the early budget session to reduce the overall delta of the position and take benefit of volatility expansion
  3. Will keep HDFCBANK delta positive as Banknifty position is overall delta negative.
  4. Post budget I will make the position delta negative and will buy HDFCBANK in cash for the long term. 1353 is 52 weeks low for HDFCBANK.
I expect private banks will perform in increasing interest rate regimes.


Sunday, 23 January 2022

Will HDFC shares rise tomorrow?

 Is it a good time to buy HDFC share? 

HDFCBANK is one of the leading private in India. In the coming days with an increasing interest rate, this bank has a good chance to give a good return. 

Here is a technical and basic fundamental analysis of HDFCbank with Target and Stoploss for positional trading using future and options.

 Technical analysis 

HDFCBANK is underperforming Nifty 50 for some time.  It is very close to 13 EMA and historically it is at a good level to bounce back.